Trump’s Russia Bill Puts India’s Trade Thaw on a Clock

Donald Trump signed a Russia sanctions law on Sept. 18 that starts a 30-day clock on tariffs of up to 100% for Moscow’s biggest oil buyers. The White House said he signed the Graham Act into law two days after the House agreed to the Senate text, 262-159.

No new duty hit Indian or Chinese goods on Friday. The statute points the president at the five largest buyers of Russian crude or gas who keep making new purchases after that window, unless he certifies a waiver.

On Friday, September 18, 2026, President Donald J. Trump signed into law:

H.R. 5334, the “Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026.”https://t.co/FHhNqJBVnT

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) September 18, 2026

The Law Starts a 30-Day Clock

The official title is the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, carried as H.R. 5334. It is named for the South Carolina Republican who spent more than a year pushing a harder line on Moscow’s oil money and who died on July 11 after a trip to Kyiv. His sister, Sen. Darline Graham, took up the file in the Senate with Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut.

A July 28 statement of administration policy backed the Senate amendment and stressed two tools the White House wanted in writing: full presidential discretion on waivers, and the power to end the Russia measures after a peace deal. That is the lever the rest of the law hangs on.

HOW THE BILL BECAME LAW

1. July 11, 2026: Lindsey Graham dies, and the sanctions package is later renamed for him.
2. July 28, 2026: The Office of Management and Budget backs the Senate amendment and flags waiver discretion and a post-peace off-ramp.
3. August 7, 2026: The Senate passed the package 86 to 11.
4. September 16, 2026: The House agrees to the Senate amendments, 262-159.
5. September 18, 2026: Trump signs H.R. 5334.
6. October 18, 2026: New purchases of Russian crude or gas on or after this date can pull a top-five buyer under the 100% duty test.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed the signature and tied it to the late senator’s long argument that Moscow should lose oil revenue, finance, and commercial cover until the war ends.

Peace comes through strength. Calm comes through security. And the best guarantee of security is resolve.

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine

What the Graham Act Requires of Trump

The Congressional Research Service summary is blunter than the campaign-style headlines. The president must impose visa- and property-blocking sanctions on named Russian figures, including the Russian president. He must also increase the rate of duty up to 100 percent on all US-bound goods from a country that ranked among the five largest importers of Russian-origin crude or natural gas if that country knowingly makes new purchases after the law takes effect.

The 100% figure is a ceiling, added on top of tariffs already in force, not a rate that went live with the pen stroke. A parallel clause directs a rise of up to 500% on goods imported from Russia itself. Covered-buyer lists are supposed to be checked again every 180 days, and the US trade representative can reset a rate to any positive level up to 100% after telling Congress its method at least 10 days ahead.

THE TARIFF TOOLS IN H.R. 5334

A gas-only carve-out is written for a top-five gas buyer that took less than 15% of Russia’s gas exports in the prior year and has taken significant steps to cut those volumes, a formula aimed at Hungary and Slovakia. The law also leaves holes for uranium fuel, space launches, humanitarian work, and a 270-day wind-down for non-Russian firms leaving Russia. Iran appears in the title mainly because the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 is extended through 2031.

Duties on Russia and on Its Buyers

Primary sanctions still do the classic work: banks, oligarchs, the defense-industrial base, sovereign debt, new US investment, and the tankers Washington calls a shadow fleet. Secondary tariffs do something else. They turn another country’s entire US export book into the penalty for buying Russian barrels, which is why India and China sit in the blast radius even though neither is named in the final text.

The National-Interest Waiver

Tariffs and sanctions in the Act may be waived if the president certifies to Congress that the waiver is in the national interests of the United States and sends a report explaining why. They may be ended for Russia if he certifies that Moscow has agreed to peace accepted by Ukraine’s government and has stopped trying to overthrow it, subject to a congressional review window. That is the off-ramp the administration asked for in July. It is also the reason Friday’s signature is a choice deferred, not a duty collected.

India Cut Russian Oil, Then Doubled Back

The collision is sitting in plain sight in a White House fact sheet from February. Trump removed an extra 25% tariff on Indian goods in recognition of India’s commitment to stop purchasing Russian oil, and he cut the reciprocal tariff from 25% to 18%. The extra 25% came off at 12:01 a.m. EST on Feb. 7. Combined, those two layers had been a 50% stack.

The Feb. 6 joint statement put an 18% reciprocal rate on Indian textiles and apparel, leather and footwear, plastics and rubber, organic chemicals, home décor, artisanal goods, and certain machinery. India, for its part, said it would buy $500 billion of US energy products, aircraft and parts, precious metals, technology, and coking coal over five years. That was the bargain: cheaper access to the US market against a turn away from Russian crude and a turn toward US supplies.

Government figures show how fast the oil side moved the other way once West Asian supply wobbled and the extra US penalty was gone. Russia’s share of India’s oil import bill had fallen to 19.3% by February. In June it was 48% of crude volumes, or 8.7 million metric tonnes. By July it was more than 51% of the import bill. For the full 2025-26 fiscal year, India still bought $40.823 billion of Russian crude, 30% of a $134.71 billion crude bill. In August, intakes were still about 1.9 million barrels a day.

C. Uday Bhaskar, director at the Society for Policy Studies, said the United States keeping the option of a 100% tariff will be felt in the India-US relationship over the long term. New Delhi’s public line is unchanged. The Ministry of External Affairs said it would protect trade interests and keep buying for a country of 1.4 billion people.

As stated on several earlier occasions, India remains firmly committed to ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion people. It will continue to do so through diversified sourcing and based on evolving market dynamics.

Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India

MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said on Sept. 18 that India had already told senior US officials what the law could do to energy security, to international energy markets, and to the overall relationship. He added nothing further.

Half of Russia’s Crude Still Goes to China

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, tallying the stretch from Dec. 5, 2022, through the end of August, puts China at 50 percent of Russia’s crude exports and India at 37%, with Turkiye and the European Union at 5% each. Together, China and India are 87% of that crude trade. Under a top-five test, both clear the bar on oil with room to spare.

INDIA’S RUSSIAN CRUDE SHARE

China is the larger buyer of Russian barrels and the larger US trading partner, which is why a 100% secondary duty on Chinese goods would be a different shock from the same clause aimed at India. The law does not make that distinction. It counts volume, then counts new purchases after Oct. 18, then leaves the waiver on the president’s desk.

Named Countries Stayed Out of the Final Text

A House amendment from Rep. Steny Hoyer would have listed China, India, Turkiye, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Slovakia, the UAE, Singapore, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan as the first countries eligible for the 100% duties. The House Rules Committee rejected it, 3-7. Rep. Gregory Meeks, the senior Democrat on Foreign Affairs, tried to strip the secondary-tariff section altogether and failed as well. He said the bill hands Trump broad new tariff powers while also letting sanctions be waived.

So the live test is a formula, not a roll call of governments. A country is in range if it was among the five largest importers, by total volume, of Russian-origin crude or of Russian-origin gas in the 12 months before Sept. 18, and if it knowingly makes new purchases on or after Oct. 18. Facilitators of sanctioned cargoes have their own top-five list. Gas buyers below the 15% mark with a cutback record can fall out. That is how Hungary and Slovakia were meant to walk around the gas clause.

THE COVER TESTS IN THE STATUTE

• Top-five oil: Rank among the five largest importers of Russian-origin crude by volume in the prior 12 months, then make a new purchase on or after Oct. 18.
• Top-five gas: The same ranking on gas, unless the buyer took 15% or less of Russia’s gas exports and has cut those imports.
• Shadow-fleet support: Rank among the five countries giving significant help to the purchase, loading, or shipment of sanctioned Russian oil, including work tied to shadow-fleet vessels.
• The waiver: The president can still hold off by certifying a national-interest case to Congress.

India is not named. It does not need to be. A 37% share of Russia’s crude trade, and a majority share of India’s own import bill in July, puts it inside the oil test if new cargoes keep moving after Oct. 18.

House Critics Said the Tariffs Would Lift Prices

The loudest argument after the signing treated the statute as a way to shrink US imports from India and China. That is the same fight that showed up in the House. Some Republicans privately pressed leaders to pull the new tariff powers, warning that duties would lift prices before the Nov. 3 midterms. Democrats who voted no said the same thing in public. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries put the objection in kitchen-table terms.

Life is way too expensive in the United States of America. Why in the world would this Congress or the People’s House give this president unfettered authority to visit more tariffs on the world that will have an adverse economic impact on the American people?

Hakeem Jeffries, House minority leader

The Kremlin said a signature would make a Ukraine peace deal harder. The administration’s own July advice ran the other way: more statutory pressure, plus a waiver, plus a termination path after a deal Kyiv would accept. Those two claims can sit in the same law because the secondary tariff is optional in practice even when the duty increase is written as a command. The command fires only if the buyer test is met and the waiver is not used.

WHAT WE KNOW

• The signature: H.R. 5334 became law on Sept. 18.
• The cap: Covered buyers face duties of up to 100% on US-bound goods, on top of rates already in force, including India’s 18% reciprocal tariff.
• The clock: New Russian oil or gas purchases on or after Oct. 18 can pull a top-five buyer under that test.

WHAT IS UNCONFIRMED

• The list: The administration has not published the five oil buyers, five gas buyers, or five facilitator countries it will treat as covered.
• The rate: No figure between a token rise and 100% has been set for any country.
• The waiver: Trump has not said whether he will certify a national-interest hold for India, China, or anyone else.

The February bargain priced India’s US market access against a stop in Russian barrels. The July import share shows how much of that stop has already come undone. From Oct. 18 the statute treats another cargo as the event that can put the whole export book, from apparel to chemicals, under a duty of up to 100%, unless the waiver lands first.